What will whisky be like in 10 years' time?
Future and present values seen from climate change and resource issues
1. Introduction
Whiskey is a delicate drink created by nature and time. Natural ingredients such as barley, water, yeast, and wooden barrels change over the course of years and even decades to create a deeply flavorful drink. For this reason, whiskey cannot remain untethered to changes in the climate and social situation. Recent global climate change, resource constraints, and new social demands regarding the environment are expected to have a major impact on whiskey production in the future. In this article, we will summarize the impacts that these will have and present our company's view on "the meaning of tasting whiskey today."
2. Climate change and the future of barley supplies
- Barley quality and yield are the crops most directly affected by climate change and are therefore key issues that are at the heart of whisky.
In East Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and China, where the four seasons are clearly defined, people naturally acquire a sense of climate change through the change of seasons. However, changes in the world's weather are already manifesting as extreme events in some areas, such as rising temperatures, heavy rains and droughts, changes in ocean currents, and even casting a shadow over the stable supply of agriculture. In Europe, there have been a series of extremely hot days exceeding 40 degrees, and it has been reported that barley production has actually decreased by more than 40% in some areas.
The quality of malt (malted barley) used in whiskey production is a very important factor that determines the flavor. If it becomes difficult to stably supply this high-quality barley in the future, it may affect the taste and price of the product. In particular, the ingredients used in the era of old bottles were grown in an era when the effects of climate change were small, and the fact that they have a different flavor than today is also part of their appeal.
3. Changing social attitudes towards grains
- If ethical and social restrictions on the use of grains become stronger in the future, this could also have an impact on the securing of whiskey ingredients.
Against the backdrop of the global climate crisis and food issues, ethical and social debate about using grains to manufacture beverages is also spreading. There is already some criticism of the very act of "using staple grains to produce luxury goods," and in the future there is a possibility that restrictions will become stronger with an emphasis on sustainability and stable food supplies.
If society were to move in that direction, it would become difficult for the whiskey industry to continue using grain ingredients in the current plentiful manner, and there are concerns that this would have an impact on procurement costs and flavor design.
4. The issue of barrel materials and the future of casks
-High-quality oak, particularly European oak used for sherry casks, is expected to become increasingly difficult to obtain and expensive in the future.
Oak barrels are essential for maturing whiskey, and in particular the European oak used for sherry casks, but it is becoming more difficult to procure them every year due to the environmental impact and stricter logging regulations. In Spain and France, the supply of oak used for sherry casks is decreasing, causing prices to rise.
This could lead to higher production costs for high-end sherry cask-aged whisky, making it harder to come by. It could also mean that the "real sherry cask-aged" whisky we can enjoy right now will become even rarer and more special in the future.
5. Environmental impacts and new demands on the distillery industry
From the distillation process to maturation and storage, whiskey production will likely become increasingly subject to scrutiny in terms of its "environmental costs" in the future.
The whisky industry is also an energy- and resource-intensive industry, with each step of the distillation, aging, and bottling process taking place. The longer the aging period, the greater the impact on the environment and the energy required for storage.
In recent years, greenhouse gases generated during the manufacturing process, especially carbon dioxide and ethanol-related CO2 emissions, have been attracting attention, and some parts of Europe are accelerating their taxation and regulation. In the future, the reason for the high price of long-aged whiskey may be understood as the "price for the environmental burden."
6. Rising costs of auxiliary materials and packaging
Due to the rising costs of natural resources, we are approaching an era in which it will become difficult to maintain a stable supply and costs of auxiliary materials such as bottles and corks.
The supply of raw materials for whiskey containers and packaging materials such as cork, bottles, and caps is also becoming unstable worldwide. The price of natural cork harvested in Italy and Portugal has risen significantly, affecting the whiskey industry.
As the prices of auxiliary materials rise, it is expected that there will be an increasing number of cases where small-scale distilleries, in particular, will be unable to absorb the production costs, and will be forced to pass on the costs to prices or simplify product specifications.
7. Summary: Considering the value of the present in a changing era
In this way, the environment surrounding whisky can change dramatically even in the short span of 10 years. Ingredients, materials, processes, social awareness - everything changes little by little, and it is not unrealistic to imagine a future where whisky cannot be made in the same way as before.
That is why we believe that whiskey available today, especially old bottles that were carefully produced in past environments, has value in that it has a flavor that was only possible in that era.
Our view is that it is precisely because whisky changes in response to the influences of nature and society that it is important to look at the glass you have today.